FightIQ

UFC FN · Ankalaev vs Guskov

Tonight
UFC Fight Night · 25 July 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Ankalaev vs Guskov

Light Heavyweight Main Event · 5 Rounds · 12 Fights · Abu Dhabi
12
Fights
5
Main Card
9
Prelims
0
LOCK Picks
◆ METHODOLOGY · LOCK MECHANICAL-AGREEMENT CAVEAT

Picks reflect the 4-voice consensus ensemble (V14 + V15.1 + Paperclip + market). Each fight shows pick + confidence tier. LOCK tier fires when our pick aligns with extreme market consensus (-300+ closing favorites); performance is partly real model signal, partly mechanical agreement with the market. 2026 LOCK ledger: 14-2 (n=16, 87.5%) — the flagged tier's canonical season record (source: season_record_2026.json). TOSS-UP picks excluded from accuracy claims. 71.59% consensus accuracy on n=428 / 76.21% UNANIMOUS_3 (n=307), 2025-2026 holdout, real-market basis (BFO closing).

◆ Main Card

Main Card

Main Event Light Heavyweight · 5 rds
Bogdan Guskov
VS
Magomed Ankalaev
Pick Magomed Ankalaev MED
Bogdan Guskov +471 · Magomed Ankalaev -471
MEDMagomed Ankalaev — medium-conviction pick at Light Heavyweight.
FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios
Bogdan Guskov
4-1

Bogdan Guskov enters UFC Abu Dhabi with a 4-1 record in the promotion. The light heavyweight has fought six times in the UFC since his debut Sept. 2, 2023. Guskov has finished most of his recent opponents. He stopped Zac Pauga by knockout in the first round Feb. 10, 2024, then knocked out Ryan Spann in the second round April 27, 2024. He submitted Billy Elekana in the second round Jan. 18, 2025, and knocked out Nikita Krylov in the first round July 26, 2025. His most recent bout, against Jan Blachowicz on Dec. 6, 2025, was ruled a majority draw after three rounds.

Magomed Ankalaev
12-2

Magomed Ankalaev carries a 12-2 UFC record into the card. He debuted March 17, 2018, and has fought 16 times in the promotion. His first meeting with Johnny Walker on Oct. 21, 2023, was ruled a no contest after Walker could not continue in the opening round. Ankalaev knocked out Walker in their rematch in the second round Jan. 13, 2024. He then won a unanimous decision over Aleksandar Rakic on Oct. 26, 2024, and captured the light heavyweight title with a unanimous decision over Alex Pereira on March 8, 2025. He lost the belt in the rematch, when Pereira knocked him out in the first round Oct. 4, 2025.

Co-Main Flyweight · 3 rds
Ramazan Temirov
VS
Steve Erceg
Pick Steve Erceg TOSS-UP
Ramazan Temirov +102 · Steve Erceg -102
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios
Ramazan Temirov
2-0

Ramazan Temirov enters UFC Abu Dhabi unbeaten in the promotion at 2-0. The flyweight made his UFC debut Oct. 12, 2024, and needed less than a round, stopping CJ Vergara by knockout in the first. In his second appearance, Temirov went the distance for the first time in the UFC, taking a unanimous decision over Charles Johnson on March 1, 2025. Both of his UFC bouts have come in the flyweight division. He has not lost inside the promotion, though his sample there remains small at two fights.

Steve Erceg
5-3

Steve Erceg brings a 5-3 UFC record to Abu Dhabi. The flyweight debuted June 10, 2023, and has fought eight times in the promotion. Erceg challenged for the flyweight title in his fourth UFC bout, losing a unanimous decision to champion Alexandre Pantoja on May 4, 2024. He then dropped two straight, stopped by Kai Kara-France in the first round Aug. 17, 2024, and losing a unanimous decision to Brandon Moreno on March 29, 2025. Erceg has won his last two. He took a unanimous decision over Ode Osbourne at bantamweight on Aug. 9, 2025, and beat Tim Elliott by unanimous decision back at flyweight on May 2, 2026.

Main Card Lightweight · 3 rds
Damian Rzepecki
VS
Magomed Zaynukov
Pick Magomed Zaynukov MED
Damian Rzepecki +239 · Magomed Zaynukov -239
MEDMagomed Zaynukov — medium-conviction pick at Lightweight.
FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios
Damian Rzepecki
0-0

Damian Rzepecki has no prior UFC fight on record in our dataset, entering the card as a newcomer to the promotion as far as our data shows. This weekend marks his first appearance in FightIQ's UFC records.

Magomed Zaynukov
0-0

Magomed Zaynukov has no prior UFC fight on record in our dataset, entering as a newcomer to the promotion as far as our data shows. This card is his first appearance in FightIQ's UFC records.

Main Card Heavyweight · 3 rds
Rizvan Kuniev
VS
Tyrell Fortune
Pick Rizvan Kuniev MED
Rizvan Kuniev -308 · Tyrell Fortune +308
MEDRizvan Kuniev — medium-conviction pick at Heavyweight.
FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios
Rizvan Kuniev
1-1

Rizvan Kuniev enters UFC Abu Dhabi with a 1-1 record in the UFC, both fights contested at heavyweight. He debuted June 21, 2025, against Curtis Blaydes and lost a split decision over three rounds. Kuniev returned Feb. 7, 2026, and beat Jailton Almeida by unanimous decision, again going the full three rounds. Neither of his two UFC appearances has ended before the final horn, and both were settled on the judges' scorecards. He has yet to record a finish in the promotion. His UFC ledger so far reads two three-round decisions, one in each direction.

Tyrell Fortune
1-0

Tyrell Fortune carries a 1-0 UFC record into this weekend's card. He made his promotional debut March 28, 2026, and won a unanimous decision over Marcin Tybura in a heavyweight bout that went the full three rounds. That victory is his only fight on record in the UFC, and it came on the judges' scorecards rather than by finish. Fortune returns at UFC Abu Dhabi looking to build on his debut and add a second win to his promotional record. His lone UFC result on record came at heavyweight and required all 15 minutes.

Main Card Welterweight · 3 rds
Abubakar Vagaev
VS
Saygid Izagakhmaev
Pick Abubakar Vagaev TOSS-UP
Abubakar Vagaev -208 · Saygid Izagakhmaev +208
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios
Abubakar Vagaev
0-0

Abubakar Vagaev has no prior UFC fight on record in our dataset, making him a newcomer to the promotion as far as our data shows. UFC Abu Dhabi marks his first appearance in our records. No earlier UFC results are available to detail.

Saygid Izagakhmaev
0-1

Saygid Izagakhmaev enters UFC Abu Dhabi with an 0-1 record in the promotion. He made his UFC debut Nov. 22, 2025, in a welterweight bout against Nicolas Dalby and lost by split decision after three rounds. The split scorecards mark his only UFC result on record, and the fight went the full distance rather than ending in a finish. Izagakhmaev returns this weekend seeking his first victory in the UFC. His single appearance in our records came at welterweight and was decided by the judges.

Main Card Heavyweight · 3 rds
Thomas Petersen
VS
Valter Walker
Pick Valter Walker LOW
Thomas Petersen +167 · Valter Walker -167
LOWValter Walker — low-conviction lean at Heavyweight.
FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios
Thomas Petersen
3-3

Thomas Petersen brings a 3-3 UFC record to Abu Dhabi, with his fights contested at heavyweight. He debuted Feb. 3, 2024. His most recent five bouts have alternated between wins and losses. Petersen beat Mohammed Usman by unanimous decision July 20, 2024, then was stopped by Shamil Gaziev via first-round TKO on Feb. 1, 2025. He rebounded May 3, 2025, with a unanimous decision over Don'Tale Mayes, before Vitor Petrino stopped him by third-round TKO on Oct. 11, 2025. Petersen returned to the win column April 4, 2026, edging Guilherme Pat by majority decision. His three most recent wins all came on the scorecards, and both of his recent losses ended by knockout.

Valter Walker
4-1

Valter Walker takes a 4-1 UFC record into this weekend, every fight contested at heavyweight. He debuted April 6, 2024, and lost a unanimous decision to Lukasz Brzeski. Since then, Walker has won four straight, each by first-round submission. He submitted Junior Tafa on Aug. 17, 2024, Don'Tale Mayes on Feb. 15, 2025, Kennedy Nzechukwu on July 12, 2025, and Louie Sutherland on Oct. 25, 2025. All four of his UFC wins have ended in the opening round by submission, and his only defeat came on the scorecards in his debut.

◆ Prelims

Prelims

Prelim Light Heavyweight · 3 rds
Dustin Jacoby
VS
Muhammad Said
Pick Dustin Jacoby LOW
Dustin Jacoby -174 · Muhammad Said +174
LOWDustin Jacoby — low-conviction lean at Light Heavyweight.
FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios
Dustin Jacoby
10-6

Dustin Jacoby enters with a 10-6 UFC record built over 17 appearances since his debut on Oct. 29, 2011. The light heavyweight has won his past three fights, all by knockout or technical knockout. He stopped Vitor Petrino in the third round on Dec. 14, 2024, finished Bruno Lopes in the first round on May 31, 2025, and knocked out Julius Walker in the second round on Feb. 7, 2026. Before that run, Jacoby lost to Dominick Reyes by first-round knockout on June 8, 2024, and dropped a unanimous decision to Alonzo Menifield on Dec. 16, 2023. His five most recent bouts all came at light heavyweight.

Muhammad Said
0-0

Muhammad Said has no prior UFC fight on record in our dataset. As far as our data shows, he enters this card as a UFC newcomer. We have no earlier bouts to summarize.

Prelim Welterweight · 3 rds
Sam Patterson
VS
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Pick Sam Patterson HIGH
Sam Patterson -413 · Santiago Ponzinibbio +413
HIGHSam Patterson — HIGH-conviction pick at Welterweight.
FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios
Sam Patterson
4-2

Sam Patterson brings a 4-2 UFC record into the card, with all six of his appearances coming since his debut on March 18, 2023. The welterweight won four straight before his most recent outing. He submitted Yohan Lainesse in the first round on Jan. 20, 2024, submitted Kiefer Crosbie in the first round on July 27, 2024, stopped Danny Barlow in the first round on March 1, 2025, and knocked out Trey Waters in the first round on Sept. 6, 2025. That run ended March 21, 2026, when Michael Page beat him by unanimous decision. Each of Patterson's UFC bouts has come at welterweight.

Santiago Ponzinibbio
12-8

Santiago Ponzinibbio carries a 12-8 UFC record into the card, compiled across 20 fights since his debut on Nov. 9, 2013. His recent results have alternated between wins and losses. Ponzinibbio knocked out Alex Morono in the third round of a catchweight bout on Dec. 10, 2022, then lost by third-round knockout to Kevin Holland on April 8, 2023. Muslim Salikhov edged him by split decision on July 13, 2024. Ponzinibbio answered with a third-round knockout of Carlston Harris on Jan. 11, 2025, before Daniel Rodriguez stopped him by third-round knockout on May 3, 2025. Four of his five most recent bouts were contested at welterweight.

Prelim Lightweight · 3 rds
Axel Sola
VS
Ismael Bonfim
Pick Axel Sola MED
Axel Sola -174 · Ismael Bonfim +174
MEDAxel Sola — medium-conviction pick at Lightweight.
FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios
Axel Sola
1-1

Axel Sola enters the card with a 1-1 UFC record, both bouts coming since his debut on Sept. 6, 2025. In that first appearance, he stopped Rhys McKee by knockout in the third round of a welterweight bout. For his second fight, Sola dropped to lightweight and faced Mason Jones on March 21, 2026, losing by unanimous decision after three rounds. His two UFC fights so far have come in different weight classes, one at welterweight and one at lightweight. Those two bouts make up his complete UFC record in our data.

Ismael Bonfim
2-3

Ismael Bonfim carries a 2-3 UFC record into the card, built over five fights since his debut on Jan. 21, 2023. He opened his UFC run by knocking out Terrance McKinney in the second round that night. Benoit Saint Denis then submitted him in the first round on July 1, 2023. Bonfim rebounded with a unanimous-decision win over Vinc Pichel on May 4, 2024. He has lost his past two, falling to Nazim Sadykhov by first-round doctor's stoppage on Feb. 15, 2025, and to Chris Padilla by knockout in the second round on Nov. 8, 2025. All five of his UFC bouts have come at lightweight.

Prelim Light Heavyweight · 3 rds
Brendson Ribeiro
VS
Magomed Tuchalov
Pick Magomed Tuchalov MED
Brendson Ribeiro +700 · Magomed Tuchalov -700
MEDMagomed Tuchalov — medium-conviction pick at Light Heavyweight.
FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios
Brendson Ribeiro
2-5

Brendson Ribeiro carries a 2-5 UFC record into the card. He made his promotional debut Feb. 17, 2024, and has fought all of his bouts in the light heavyweight division.

Ribeiro's two wins came in a stretch across late 2024 and early 2025. He took a split decision over Caio Machado on Nov. 2, 2024, then submitted Diyar Nurgozhay in the second round March 15, 2025.

He has lost his last three. Azamat Murzakanov stopped him by first-round knockout June 7, 2025, and Oumar Sy did the same Sept. 6, 2025. Most recently, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev submitted him in the first round April 4, 2026. Four of Ribeiro's five UFC losses have come by stoppage.

Magomed Tuchalov
0-0

Magomed Tuchalov enters with no prior UFC fight on record in our dataset. As far as our data shows, this is his first appearance in the promotion.

Prelim Lightweight · 3 rds
Mike Davis
VS
Nurullo Aliev
Pick Nurullo Aliev HIGH
Mike Davis +217 · Nurullo Aliev -217
HIGHNurullo Aliev — HIGH-conviction pick at Lightweight.
FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios
Mike Davis
5-2

Mike Davis brings a 5-2 UFC record into the card. He debuted April 27, 2019, and has competed at lightweight throughout his run.

Davis built a three-fight winning streak across recent years. He took unanimous decisions over Mason Jones on Jan. 20, 2021, and Viacheslav Borshchev on Oct. 1, 2022, then submitted Natan Levy in the second round March 16, 2024.

His most recent loss came by unanimous decision to Fares Ziam on Feb. 1, 2025. Davis bounced back July 12, 2025, stopping Mitch Ramirez by second-round knockout. He has won five of his seven UFC bouts, with finishes by both submission and knockout among them.

Nurullo Aliev
3-0

Nurullo Aliev is undefeated in the UFC at 3-0. He debuted Feb. 25, 2023, and has fought at lightweight in each appearance.

All three of Aliev's wins have gone to the scorecards. He took a majority decision over Rafael Alves in his debut Feb. 25, 2023, then returned to earn a unanimous decision over Joe Solecki on Jan. 11, 2025. Most recently, he beat Shem Rock by unanimous decision Nov. 22, 2025.

Aliev has yet to record a stoppage in the promotion, but he has also yet to lose.

Prelim Bantamweight · 3 rds
Abdul Hussein
VS
Cody Gibson
Pick Abdul Hussein MED
Abdul Hussein -441 · Cody Gibson +441
MEDAbdul Hussein — medium-conviction pick at Bantamweight.
FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios
Abdul Hussein
0-0

Abdul Hussein enters with no prior UFC fight on record in our dataset. As far as our data shows, this is his first appearance in the promotion.

Cody Gibson
3-7

Cody Gibson carries a 3-7 UFC record into the card. His time in the promotion dates back to his debut Feb. 22, 2014, and he has fought at bantamweight throughout.

Gibson's recent form has been mixed. He lost a unanimous decision to Miles Johns on March 23, 2024, then won back-to-back bouts: a first-round submission of Brian Kelleher on July 20, 2024, and a unanimous decision over Chad Anheliger on Nov. 2, 2024.

He has dropped his last two. Da'Mon Blackshear submitted him in the second round March 15, 2025, and Aoriqileng stopped him by first-round knockout Oct. 18, 2025. Gibson has won three of his 10 UFC fights.