◆ METHODOLOGY · LOCK MECHANICAL-AGREEMENT CAVEAT
Picks reflect the 4-voice consensus ensemble (V14 + V15.1 + Paperclip + market). Each fight shows pick + confidence tier. LOCK tier fires when our pick aligns with extreme market consensus (-300+ closing favorites); performance is partly real model signal, partly mechanical agreement with the market. 2026 LOCK ledger: 14-2 (n=16, 87.5%) — the flagged tier's canonical season record (source: season_record_2026.json). TOSS-UP picks excluded from accuracy claims. 71.59% consensus accuracy on n=428 / 76.21% UNANIMOUS_3 (n=307), 2025-2026 holdout, real-market basis (BFO closing).
Main Event
Lightweight · 5 rds
Pick
Ilia Topuria
HIGH
Ilia Topuria -388 · Justin Gaethje +388
HIGHIlia Topuria — HIGH-conviction pick at Lightweight.
FightIQ Take
Ilia Topuria walks the White House lawn with two divisions already conquered — the featherweight strap he took off Volkanovski and the lightweight strap he took from Oliveira. Justin Gaethje is the lightweight gatekeeper who has ended more careers than most champions ever build, the highest-volume violence merchant the division has ever produced. This is what title fights are supposed to look like.
Topuria HIGH from the model is the read on technical pedigree + power + the most active recent stretch. Gaethje's path is the leg kick game + walking through fire — he's done it to better strikers than Topuria. Five rounds against the toughest, hardest-walking lightweight in the era is the only honest framing. The model leans Topuria but this is not LOCK tier, and that's the model showing its honesty: Gaethje can win at 36 years old; he's done it before.
Key factors
- Two-division champ vs the era's hardest gatekeeper — historic stakes
- Topuria's power + boxing pedigree against Gaethje's leg kicks + cardio
- Gaethje 36, Topuria 29 — 7-year age gap is real
- 5 rounds at the White House — venue + crowd are wild cards
- HIGH tier, not LOCK — model honest about Gaethje's upside path
FightIQ News
Topuria Fights for History on the White House Lawn
The lightweight title, outdoors, with GOAT stakes — and a near-5-to-1 underdog selling belief.
Ilia Topuria headlines the most unusual card in UFC history — a world title fight on the White House lawn — as the heaviest of favorites. He's 9-0 in the UFC with a highlight reel of finished legends: knockouts of Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira, plus belts in two divisions. The model rates him its top tier, a -426 favorite. Justin Gaethje, the two-time interim lightweight champion fresh off a decision over Paddy Pimblett, is the near-5-to-1 underdog, and he's leaning into it — calling this his "Miracle On Ice" moment. His own grim math: Holloway stopped him; Topuria stopped Holloway. The variable nobody can model is the venue — outdoor, D.C. heat, the chaos a champion doesn't want. For Gaethje, chaos is the whole pitch.
Co-Main
Heavyweight · 5 rds
Pick
Ciryl Gane
LOW
Alex Pereira -102 · Ciryl Gane +102
LOWCiryl Gane — low-conviction lean at Heavyweight.
FightIQ Take
Alex Pereira's two-division title résumé is one of the great late-career stories the sport has ever seen — middleweight gold, light-heavyweight gold, knockouts that rewrote what 38-year-olds were supposed to do. Now he chases a third division as the heavyweight challenger to Ciryl Gane, the French technician with the cleanest boxing in the division and a sub-loss to Jones the only blemish on his recent ledger. The model has Gane.
LOW tier on Gane is the model saying: the structural advantages live with the bigger, native heavyweight who has handled cleaner technicians than Pereira on the feet. Pereira's path is one-shot finishing power — and that path is always live; ask anyone he's hit. The model not picking him means it's reading the size + technique gap as material. Genuine live dog territory if you read style differently.
Key factors
- Pereira's KO power vs Gane's size + technique + heavyweight cardio
- Pereira moving up TWO divisions for this fight
- Gane's only recent loss was a sub to Jon Jones, not a KO
- 5 rounds — Pereira's late-career cardio question
- LOW tier — model picks Gane but live dog read either way
FightIQ News
Pereira Chases History — but the Model Quietly Likes Gane
A heavyweight-debut interim title shot at becoming the first-ever three-division champion, in a fight the numbers call a coin flip.
Alex Pereira, already a champion at middleweight and light heavyweight, moves to heavyweight for the interim title and a shot at becoming the UFC's first-ever three-division champion. He's coming off a first-round knockout of Magomed Ankalaev that reclaimed his 205 belt. But this one is close: the line has Pereira a razor-thin favorite (-108), and FightIQ's model actually leans the other way — toward Ciryl Gane, at low confidence. Gane is the more natural heavyweight, the rangier mover, with losses only at the very top (a submission to Jon Jones, a no-contest with Tom Aspinall that froze the division and created this interim belt). It's a genuine model/market divergence — the kind we flag, not a play. The history is real either way: nobody has worn three UFC belts.
Main Card
Bantamweight · 3 rds
Pick
Sean Omalley
TOSS-UP
Aiemann Zahabi +365 · Sean Omalley -365
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
FightIQ Take
Sean O'Malley is the bantamweight star whose name carries the marketing weight on every card he's on, currently rebuilding after losing the belt to Merab. Aiemann Zahabi is the Canadian whose name doesn't ring like O'Malley's but whose Elo and technical baseline are quietly elite — coached by Firas Zahabi (brother), trained at Tristar, the resume is real even if the spotlight isn't. Model says coin flip.
TOSS-UP with O'Malley as the pick is the model siding marginally on the marquee name + reach + boxing pedigree, but the read is honestly thin. Zahabi's path is grappling control + length + a technical edge in the kind of pacing fights that decide judges' scorecards. Live dog territory either way; do not read TOSS-UP as conviction.
Key factors
- O'Malley's reach + boxing vs Zahabi's grappling + technical depth
- Tristar coaching + Firas as brother — elite cornering for Zahabi
- O'Malley's recent loss to Merab — questions about chin + wrestling defense
- Bantamweight 3-round — pacing matters
- TOSS-UP — coin flip; don't read the side as conviction
Main Card
Heavyweight · 3 rds
Pick
Josh Hokit
HIGH
Derrick Lewis +344 · Josh Hokit -344
HIGHJosh Hokit — HIGH-conviction pick at Heavyweight.
FightIQ Take
Derrick Lewis is the all-time heavyweight knockout king — most KOs in UFC history, more comebacks-of-the-night moments than anyone in the division. Josh Hokit is the rising prospect who already beat Curtis Blaydes in his short UFC run; the model considers him a top-10 ceiling heavyweight already. The model has Hokit HIGH on this — meaningful read against the veteran.
HIGH on Hokit is the model saying: trajectory + technical baseline + cardio asymmetry all line up one way. The Lewis path is what it always is: one perfect shot. The model's not pricing this as TOSS-UP because Hokit's wrestling-grappling structural edge is the kind of profile that wears down 41-year-old strikers. Live dog on the Lewis KO path stays real.
Key factors
- Hokit's UFC trajectory — Curtis Blaydes win on the ledger already
- Lewis 41, Hokit 28 — 13-year age gap
- Lewis's path is one perfect shot — always live at heavyweight
- Hokit's wrestling-grappling profile vs Lewis's striking
- HIGH tier — clean structural read
FightIQ News
The Fast-Rising Prospect Who Already Beat Blaydes
Josh Hokit is the favorite over knockout legend Derrick Lewis — and the resume backs it.
Josh Hokit has had a meteoric start: first-round knockouts of Max Gimenis and Denzel Freeman, then a genuine statement — a decision over former title challenger Curtis Blaydes. The market and the model agree he's the favorite (the model leans Hokit at medium confidence) over Derrick Lewis, the most prolific knockout artist in UFC history. But Lewis is exactly the kind of opponent a hot prospect can't get careless against — he's coming off a knockout loss to Waldo Cortes Acosta, but his power never fully leaves. If Hokit fights smart, his trajectory points up; if he stands and trades, Lewis only needs one.
Main Card
Lightweight · 3 rds
Pick
Mauricio Ruffy
HIGH
Mauricio Ruffy -413 · Michael Chandler +413
HIGHMauricio Ruffy — HIGH-conviction pick at Lightweight.
FightIQ Take
Mauricio Ruffy is the Brazilian KO artist on a UFC rise — the kind of striker whose finishing rate makes corners panic. Michael Chandler is the former Bellator champion whose UFC run has been wild from day one, finisher's mentality, but on the wrong side of consistency for the last two years. Model picks Ruffy HIGH.
HIGH on Ruffy is the model reading trajectory + power + the recent-form gap. The Chandler path is what it's always been: a forward-pressure brawl where someone gets hurt early. The interesting tell is the model siding decisively with the younger Brazilian — suggests it's not reading Chandler's pedigree as enough to overcome Ruffy's recent stretch. Probably gets violent.
Key factors
- Ruffy's finishing trajectory + power
- Chandler's finisher pedigree + name brand
- Chandler 40, Ruffy 29 — 11-year gap
- Both fighters lean to violence — finishes likely
- HIGH tier — model conviction on the youth + form asymmetry
FightIQ News
A Rising Finisher Meets a Fading Star
Mauricio Ruffy is a massive favorite over Michael Chandler — the numbers see a changing of the guard.
Mauricio Ruffy is one of the division's hottest finishers, with recent knockouts of King Green and, most strikingly, Rafael Fiziev. He's a heavy favorite (the model rates him high confidence) over Michael Chandler, the beloved former Bellator champion whose UFC run has turned hard — a knockout loss to Paddy Pimblett and a decision loss to Charles Oliveira in his recent outings. Chandler's heart and power are never in question, but the speed and timing that made him a star are being tested by a younger, sharper striker. This has the shape of a passing-of-the-torch fight, with the torch moving fast.
Main Card
Middleweight · 3 rds
Pick
Bo Nickal
HIGH
Bo Nickal -264 · Kyle Daukaus +264
HIGHBo Nickal — HIGH-conviction pick at Middleweight.
FightIQ Take
Bo Nickal is the wrestling phenom who entered the UFC with one of the loudest hype trains the sport's seen since Khabib — collegiate national champ, top-level athleticism, finishing résumé. Kyle Daukaus is the technical grappler on a surging recent run — durable, smart, the kind of opponent who tests pedigree against real-fight problems. Model has Nickal HIGH.
HIGH on Nickal is the structural call — when you're a multi-time NCAA national champion meeting someone whose finishing path is also primarily wrestling-grappling, the wrestler with the deeper pedigree wins more often than not. Daukaus's path is technique in the scramble + capitalizing if Nickal over-commits to the takedown. Most likely method: sub.
Key factors
- Nickal's wrestling pedigree — multi-time NCAA national champion
- Daukaus's surging recent UFC run + technical grappling base
- Two wrestlers + grapplers colliding — sub path live for both
- Middleweight 3-round, sub-heavy method profile
- HIGH tier — pedigree-driven read
FightIQ News
Nickal Rebuilds Against a Surging Daukaus
The wrestling phenom is the favorite, but Kyle Daukaus is dangerous and on a roll.
Bo Nickal's aura took a dent when Reinier de Ridder knocked him out, but he answered with a knockout of Rodolfo Vieira to steady the ship. He's the favorite here (the model leans Nickal at high confidence), and his elite wrestling remains the swing skill. Kyle Daukaus, though, is a genuinely live underdog riding momentum — a knockout of Michel Pereira and a first-round submission of Gerald Meerschaert in his recent outings. If Nickal imposes the grappling, the pedigree tells; if Daukaus catches him in a scramble, this is the kind of fight that can go sideways fast for a favorite.
Main Card
Featherweight · 3 rds
Pick
Diego Lopes
TOSS-UP
Diego Lopes -120 · Steve Garcia +120
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
FightIQ Take
Diego Lopes is the Brazilian featherweight prospect on a rapid UFC arc — finishing résumé, growing buzz, the kind of fighter who's one big win away from title-line consideration. Steve Garcia is the lightweight-down-to-featherweight veteran with finishing power of his own, lower Elo but the higher experience floor. Two finishers. Model says coin flip.
TOSS-UP with Lopes as the pick is the model reading trajectory + youth + recent form, but the read is genuinely thin. Garcia's path is power + matching Lopes's pace + finding the one clean shot. Both fighters bring finishing teeth — this is the kind of fight that ends in round one or doesn't.
Key factors
- Lopes's trajectory + buzz vs Garcia's experience floor
- Two finisher profiles colliding — high finish-likelihood
- Featherweight 3-round, often ends inside the distance
- Model sees the matchup margins as thin
- TOSS-UP — pure coin flip, don't read side as conviction
FightIQ News
A Featherweight Pick-'Em With Two Finishers
Diego Lopes is the slight favorite over red-hot Steve Garcia — the model calls it a toss-up.
Diego Lopes has fought at the very top — two competitive title fights with Alexander Volkanovski and a knockout of Jean Silva between them. He's the slight betting favorite, but FightIQ's model rates this a toss-up, and Steve Garcia is exactly why: the featherweight is on a tear of finishes, with first-round knockouts of David Onama and others plus a decision over veteran Calvin Kattar. Lopes's experience against elite competition versus Garcia's surging power and momentum — a genuine coin-flip between two men who end fights. The kind of opener that can steal the night.