The lede

Max Holloway ended Conor McGregor's comeback in a round, and our model was on the right side of it. Tonight, Dricus du Plessis and Kamaru Usman headline in Oklahoma City. Here is the morning.

On the record: UFC 329

We called it. Our model tagged Holloway a HIGH-confidence pick against a returning McGregor, the call the room kept telling us was wrong because the other guy was McGregor. Holloway knocked him out in Round 1. The card graded 10-4 on winners and a perfect 4-for-4 on flagged conviction picks, and the only misses were fights the model itself flagged as toss-ups. The full autopsy is on the desk, misses and all.

Tonight: DDP vs Usman in Oklahoma City

Dricus du Plessis meets a Kamaru Usman moving up to middleweight tonight at Paycom Center. The build has been loud, from Islam Makhachev's blunt read on Usman to an old friend warning him about du Plessis. Our preview and the storyline roundup are up.

One honest note: we are withholding our model number on this card. Its prediction data is under a data-quality hold on our side, and after this week we would rather flag that than publish a figure we cannot stand behind. When the data clears and the result is official, the recap and model autopsy follow, graded in public like every card.

The number

The live 2026 record, as of July 2026, sits at 68.8 percent on all picks, every fight including toss-ups, the floor. On flagged conviction picks, the LOCK and HIGH tier, it is 82.67 percent, 62-13 across 75 such picks. That flagged number refreshes upward once UFC 329 folds in. We track the second number, and we grade it in public.