◆ LOCK methodology LOCK fires when our pick aligns with extreme market consensus (-300+ closing favorites). Performance is partly real model signal, partly mechanical agreement with the market. 2026 ledger: 11-0 — 10 mechanical-agreement, 1 real (Malkoun, Perth).
Tonight · Card Live in Hours
FightIQ V14 Dual-Ensemble · frozen 2026-01-01 walk-forward

UFC 328 : Chimaev vs Strickland

UFC PPV · Middleweight Title · 5 Rounds

May 9, 2026 · Main Card 10:00 PM ET / 3:00 AM BST · Prelims 8:00 PM ET · venue per official broadcast

12
Fights
5
Main Card
7
Prelims
--Days
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--Hrs
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Polymarket prices auto-refresh every 2 minutes · model probabilities frozen at fight-week build

Counterfactual Matchups

The same fights, but with alternate primes / dates / weight-class shifts. Each variant is a separate model run on the V14 ensemble — conversation pieces, not predictions.

MiddleweightKhamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland
BASELINE (BOTH CURRENT)
Khamzat Chimaev: Current · Sean Strickland: Current

The model picks Khamzat Chimaev with a 77% probability based on a unanimous consensus across four sub-models. The model favours Chimaev due to a significant Control Time Gap of +228.9 seconds per fight and a +48 Elo Rating Gap. Additionally, the model identifies a +8 Win/Loss Streak gap in favor of Chimaev.

commentary by gemma4:26b
LR
78%
XGB
78%
LGB
78%
CB
76%
KO
17.7%SUB
21.8%DEC
60.5%
77.5%
Khamzat Chimaev
Model Win Probability
UNANIMOUS 4WAY
CHIMAEV AT PEAK ELO VS S
Khamzat Chimaev: Prime (2025-08-16) · Sean Strickland: Current

The model picks Khamzat Chimaev with a 77% probability based on a unanimous consensus across four sub-models. The model favours Chimaev due to a significant Control Time Gap of +228.9 seconds per fight and a +48 Elo Rating Gap. Additionally, the model identifies a +8 Win/Loss Streak gap in favor of Chimaev.

commentary by gemma4:26b
LR
78%
XGB
78%
LGB
78%
CB
76%
KO
17.7%SUB
21.8%DEC
60.5%
77.5%
Khamzat Chimaev
Model Win Probability
UNANIMOUS 4WAY
CHIMAEV CURRENT VS STRIC
Khamzat Chimaev: Current · Sean Strickland: Prime (2023-09-09)

The model picks Khamzat Chimaev with a 79% probability based on a unanimous consensus from four sub-models. The model favours Chimaev due to a significant Control Time Gap of +215.4 seconds per fight and a Grappling Index Gap of +6.01. Additionally, the model identifies a Strength of Schedule advantage of +58 average opponent Elo for Chimaev.

commentary by gemma4:26b
LR
78%
XGB
83%
LGB
81%
CB
77%
KO
22.4%SUB
31.4%DEC
46.1%
79.2%
Khamzat Chimaev
Model Win Probability
UNANIMOUS 4WAY
FlyweightTatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van
BASELINE (BOTH CURRENT)
Tatsuro Taira: Current · Joshua Van: Current

The model picks Joshua Van with a 50% probability based on a majority of the sub-models. This preference is supported by the model's identification of a negative Striking Index Gap and a negative Avg Fight Duration Gap. Additionally, the model notes a negative Elo Rating Gap between the two flyweights.

commentary by gemma4:26b
LR
48%
XGB
53%
LGB
52%
CB
51%
KO
22.4%SUB
16.8%DEC
60.8%
50.2%
Joshua Van
Model Win Probability
MAJORITY 3 (lr blind dissents)
WelterweightSean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley
BASELINE (BOTH CURRENT)
Sean Brady: Current · Joaquin Buckley: Current

The model picks Sean Brady with a 57% probability. This preference is driven by a positive Control Time Gap of 154.6 seconds per fight and a higher Elo Rating Gap of 14 points. Additionally, the model favours Brady due to a favorable Striker vs Grappler Matchup.

commentary by gemma4:26b
LR
55%
XGB
55%
LGB
59%
CB
60%
KO
30.0%SUB
19.2%DEC
50.8%
56.8%
Sean Brady
Model Win Probability
UNANIMOUS 4WAY WEAK
◆ Reading the moves7-day moves include normal market discovery from open prices (markets opened at 0.50 a week ago, drifting to real consensus is normal). 24-hour deltas are the better signal for actionable reads. Heat scale: BARELY (under 2pp) · MILD (2–5pp) · MOVING (5–10pp) · STEAM (10–20pp) · NEWS (>20pp).
◆ Polymarket line movement

What's moved this week

Generated · 7-day window · 12 fights · raw markdown

Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland
MOVING
Will the fight go past round 4.5? YES jumped 5 points (32% -> 37%).
Public expects the fight to go past round 4.5.
MILD
Will the fight go past round 2.5? YES jumped 4 points (50% -> 55%).
Public expects the fight to go past round 2.5.
MILD
Will the fight end in KO/TKO? YES jumped 4 points (26% -> 30%).
Public is leaning toward a stoppage.
MILD
Will the fight go past round 3.5? YES jumped 4 points (43% -> 46%).
Public expects the fight to go past round 3.5.
MILD
Will the fight go past round 0.5? YES jumped 2 points (82% -> 84%).
Public expects the fight to go past round 0.5.
Verdict: Modest activity. No single market has moved decisively.
Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van
STEAM
Will the fight go past round 0.5? YES dropped 16 points (93% -> 78%).
Public expects the fight to end before round 0.5.
MOVING
Will the fight end in KO/TKO? YES dropped 9 points (40% -> 30%).
Public has shifted away from expecting a finish.
MOVING
Will the fight go past round 4.5? YES jumped 6 points (39% -> 44%).
Public expects the fight to go past round 4.5.
MILD
Will the fight end in submission? YES jumped 4 points (32% -> 36%).
Submission likelihood is climbing.
MILD
Will Joshua Van win by KO? YES jumped 4 points (20% -> 24%).
Joshua Van is now picked to score a knockout more often.
Verdict: Most notable move: Will the fight go past round 0.5? (-16 points).
Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
STEAM
Will the fight end in submission? YES dropped 16 points (20% -> 4%).
Submission expectations have cooled.
MOVING
Will the fight go to decision? YES jumped 10 points (55% -> 64%).
Public is leaning toward a competitive, decision-bound fight.
MOVING
Will the fight go the distance? YES jumped 10 points (55% -> 64%).
Public is leaning toward a competitive, decision-bound fight.
MOVING
Will the fight end in KO/TKO? YES dropped 8 points (38% -> 30%).
Public has shifted away from expecting a finish.
MOVING
Will Alexander Volkov win by KO? YES dropped 8 points (25% -> 18%).
Backers no longer expect Alexander Volkov to finish by knockout.
Verdict: Most notable move: Will the fight end in submission? (-16 points).
Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley
NEWS
Will Joaquin Buckley win by KO? YES jumped 35 points (18% -> 53%).
Joaquin Buckley is now picked to score a knockout more often.
NEWS
Sean Brady to win YES dropped 26 points (62% -> 36%).
From 62% to 36%.
NEWS
Sean Brady (sportsbook consensus) YES dropped 25 points (60% -> 35%).
From 60% to 35%.
Verdict: Market has flipped its pick. Joaquin Buckley is now the favorite.
King Green vs Jeremy Stephens
NEWS
Will Jeremy Stephens win by KO? YES dropped 29 points (54% -> 26%).
Backers no longer expect Jeremy Stephens to finish by knockout.
STEAM
Will King Green win by KO? YES dropped 17 points (28% -> 10%).
Backers no longer expect King Green to finish by knockout.
MOVING
Will the fight end in submission? YES dropped 8 points (21% -> 13%).
Submission expectations have cooled.
MOVING
Will the fight go past round 1.5? YES dropped 8 points (74% -> 66%).
Public expects the fight to end before round 1.5.
MILD
Will the fight end in KO/TKO? YES dropped 2 points (40% -> 38%).
Public has shifted away from expecting a finish.
Verdict: Most notable move: Will Jeremy Stephens win by KO? (-29 points).
Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz
NEWS
Will Ateba Gautier win by KO? YES dropped 28 points (50% -> 22%).
Backers no longer expect Ateba Gautier to finish by knockout.
STEAM
Will the fight end in KO/TKO? YES jumped 14 points (64% -> 78%).
Public is leaning toward a stoppage.
STEAM
Will the fight go to decision? YES jumped 12 points (12% -> 24%).
Public is leaning toward a competitive, decision-bound fight.
STEAM
Will the fight go the distance? YES jumped 12 points (12% -> 24%).
Public is leaning toward a competitive, decision-bound fight.
STEAM
Will Ozzy Diaz win by KO? YES jumped 11 points (68% -> 79%).
Ozzy Diaz is now picked to score a knockout more often.
Verdict: Public has gravitated toward a knockout finish this week.
Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov
STEAM
Will the fight go past round 0.5? YES dropped 12 points (86% -> 75%).
Public expects the fight to end before round 0.5.
MILD
Will Joel Alvarez win by KO? YES dropped 3 points (18% -> 16%).
Backers no longer expect Joel Alvarez to finish by knockout.
MILD
Will the fight go past round 1.5? YES jumped 2 points (66% -> 68%).
Public expects the fight to go past round 1.5.
MILD
Will the fight end in KO/TKO? YES dropped 2 points (29% -> 26%).
Public has shifted away from expecting a finish.
MILD
Will the fight go past round 2.5? YES jumped 2 points (50% -> 52%).
Public expects the fight to go past round 2.5.
Verdict: Most notable move: Will the fight go past round 0.5? (-12 points).
Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki
NEWS
Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO? YES dropped 34 points (46% -> 12%).
Backers no longer expect Mateusz Rebecki to finish by knockout.
NEWS
Will the fight go past round 1.5? YES jumped 34 points (66% -> 100%).
Public expects the fight to go past round 1.5.
NEWS
Grant Dawson (sportsbook consensus) YES jumped 34 points (58% -> 91%).
From 58% to 91%.
NEWS
Will the fight end in submission? YES jumped 32 points (16% -> 48%).
Submission likelihood is climbing.
Verdict: Most notable move: Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO? (-34 points).
Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio
NEWS
Will the fight go to decision? YES jumped 59 points (40% -> 100%).
Public is leaning toward a competitive, decision-bound fight.
NEWS
Will the fight go the distance? YES jumped 59 points (40% -> 100%).
Public is leaning toward a competitive, decision-bound fight.
NEWS
Will the fight go past round 2.5? YES jumped 52 points (48% -> 100%).
Public expects the fight to go past round 2.5.
NEWS
Will the fight end in KO/TKO? YES dropped 51 points (61% -> 10%).
Public has shifted away from expecting a finish.
NEWS
Will the fight end in submission? YES dropped 51 points (52% -> 0%).
Submission expectations have cooled.
Verdict: Public is leaning toward a competitive, distance-bound fight.
Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis
NEWS
Will the fight end in submission? YES dropped 53 points (54% -> 0%).
Submission expectations have cooled.
NEWS
Will the fight end in KO/TKO? YES dropped 47 points (48% -> 0%).
Public has shifted away from expecting a finish.
NEWS
Will the fight go to decision? YES jumped 46 points (53% -> 100%).
Public is leaning toward a competitive, decision-bound fight.
NEWS
Will the fight go the distance? YES jumped 46 points (53% -> 100%).
Public is leaning toward a competitive, decision-bound fight.
NEWS
Will the fight go past round 1.5? YES jumped 43 points (56% -> 100%).
Public expects the fight to go past round 1.5.
Verdict: Same winner expected, different story. Public has shifted from expecting a knockout finish toward a longer fight.
Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos
NEWS
Will the fight end in KO/TKO? YES dropped 64 points (64% -> 0%).
Public has shifted away from expecting a finish.
NEWS
Will the fight end in submission? YES jumped 56 points (44% -> 100%).
Submission likelihood is climbing.
NEWS
Will Djorden Santos win by KO? YES dropped 51 points (51% -> 0%).
Backers no longer expect Djorden Santos to finish by knockout.
NEWS
Will the fight go past round 0.5? YES jumped 49 points (51% -> 100%).
Public expects the fight to go past round 0.5.
NEWS
Will the fight go past round 2.5? YES jumped 48 points (52% -> 100%).
Public expects the fight to go past round 2.5.
Verdict: Most notable move: Will the fight end in KO/TKO? (-64 points).
Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa
NEWS
Will the fight end in KO/TKO? YES dropped 45 points (46% -> 0%).
Public has shifted away from expecting a finish.
NEWS
Will the fight end in submission? YES dropped 44 points (44% -> 0%).
Submission expectations have cooled.
NEWS
Will the fight go to decision? YES jumped 42 points (57% -> 100%).
Public is leaning toward a competitive, decision-bound fight.
NEWS
Will the fight go the distance? YES jumped 42 points (57% -> 100%).
Public is leaning toward a competitive, decision-bound fight.
NEWS
Will the fight go past round 2.5? YES jumped 36 points (64% -> 100%).
Public expects the fight to go past round 2.5.
Verdict: Same winner expected, different story. Public has shifted from expecting a knockout finish toward a longer fight.
◆ Source: Polymarket gamma · build: _website/events/2026-05-09/timeseries/storyboard.md · v1 — 24h-primary view ships UFC 322