UFC Winnipeg predictions live — Burns vs Malott, Saturday

Predict fights.
Find edge.
Beat the market.

A dual-ensemble ML model trained on 8,500+ fights. 75.6% accuracy in 2026. LOCK picks are 10-0 this year. No guesswork, no gut feelings — just data.

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The numbers speak for themselves

Live 2026 results + 7-year walk-forward backtest (2020–2026). Not cherry-picked. Not overfit. Zero data leakage.

10-0
LOCK Picks in 2026
highest confidence tier · perfect
84.1%
LOCK + HIGH Accuracy
37-7 in 2026 · live results
75.6%
2026 Accuracy
90 fights · walk-forward
+14.6%
2026 ML Bet ROI
$1,404 profit · 115 bets · flat $100
65.5%
7-Year Accuracy
2,500 fights · 2020–2026
47
Engineered Features
zero data leakage · audited

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

How FightIQ works

From raw fight data to actionable predictions in four steps.

01

Data Collection

12+ years of UFC fight data, fighter stats, and historical odds scraped and cleaned.

02

Feature Engineering

47 engineered features with 5-year half-life time-weighting. Recent fights matter more.

03

Ensemble Prediction

4-model ensemble (LR + XGBoost + LightGBM + CatBoost) with odds-aware and odds-blind dual architecture.

04

Value Detection

Live scanning of Polymarket and sportsbook lines to find mispriced fights. Edge, not luck.

Dual-ensemble architecture

Two sub-models blended to avoid overfitting to betting lines while still leveraging market signal.

Logistic Regression

Stable baseline with interpretable coefficients

XGBoost

Gradient boosting for complex feature interactions

LightGBM

Fast leaf-wise training with categorical support

CatBoost

Ordered boosting to reduce prediction shift

This Saturday's predictions

Real model output for UFC Winnipeg. This is what you get before every fight night.

UFC Winnipeg
18 April 2026
LIVE
Mike Malott
77.7%
HIGH
Dec 48%
Gilbert Burns
22.3%
Jamie Siraj
75.6%
HIGH
KO 37% · STRONG VALUE
John Yannis
24.4%
Marcio Barbosa Jr
72.0%
HIGH
Dec 44%
Dennis Buzukja
28.0%
Julien Leblanc
60.4%
MED
KO 43% · STRONG VALUE
Robert Valentin
39.6%

Not all picks are equal

Every prediction comes with a confidence tier so you know exactly how much weight to give it.

LOCK
10-0
2026 live · 100%
HIGH
79%
2026 live · 27-7
MED
67%
7-year walk-forward
LOW
65%
7-year walk-forward

Spot mispriced fights

We scan Polymarket and sportsbook lines in real time and compare them against our model probabilities. When the market is wrong, we flag it.

If our model says a fighter wins 76% of the time but the market prices them at 62%, that's a +14% edge. We surface these opportunities so you can act on them.

Edge Detection — UFC Winnipeg
Leblanc vs Valentin
Model 60.4%
Market 52.6%
+7.8%
Siraj vs Yannis
Model 75.6%
Market 68.8%
+6.8%
Moises vs Young
Model 55.8%
Market 53.5%
+2.3%

Every card. Every prediction. Every result.

Full pre-fight analysis, FightIQ model predictions, and post-fight results for every UFC event in 2026.

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